Quantum Phenomenology of Conjunction Fallacy
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
The conjunction fallacy: a misunderstanding about conjunction?
It is easy to construct pairs of sentences X, Y that lead many people to ascribe higher probability to the conjunction X-and-Y than to the conjuncts X, Y. Whether an error is thereby committed depends on reasoners’ interpretation of the expressions “probability” and “and.” We report two experiments designed to clarify the normative status of typical responses to conjunction problems. © 2004 Cog...
متن کاملQuantum mechanics , Bayes ’ theorem and the conjunction fallacy
In the present article we show that the predictions of quantum mechanics lead to violations of Bayes' rule when considering the probability of the conjunction of two events. Quite interestingly, a similar effect of conjunction fallacy is well known and experimentally tested in cognitive science as a cognitive heuristic, which occurs for intuitive judgments in situations of bounded rationality. ...
متن کاملQuantum-like models cannot account for the conjunction fallacy
Human agents happen to judge that a conjunction of two terms is more probable than one of the terms, in contradiction with the rules of classical probabilities—this is the conjunction fallacy. One of the most discussed accounts of this fallacy is currently the quantum-like explanation, which relies on models exploiting the mathematics of quantum mechanics. The aim of this paper is to investigat...
متن کاملOn the nature of the conjunction fallacy
In a seminal work, Tversky and Kahneman showed that in some contexts people tend to believe that a conjunction of events (e.g., Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement) is more likely to occur than one of the conjuncts (e.g., Linda is a bank teller). This belief violates the conjunction rule in probability theory. Tversky and Kahneman called this phenomenon the "conjunctio...
متن کاملOn the reality of the conjunction fallacy.
Attributing higher "probability" to a sentence of form p-and-q, relative to p, is a reasoning fallacy only if (1) the word probability carries its modern, technical meaning and (2) the sentence p is interpreted as a conjunct of the conjunction p-and-q. Legitimate doubts arise about both conditions in classic demonstrations of the conjunction fallacy. We used betting paradigms and unambiguously ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of the Physical Society of Japan
سال: 2012
ISSN: 0031-9015,1347-4073
DOI: 10.1143/jpsj.81.104801